DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/19 11:31
Grains Mixed at Midday
Row crops are lower, wheat firmer at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 85. The
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 6 lower. Energies are
firmer with crude up 0.75. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mixed
with gold down 1.00.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower in quiet midday trade with the market
looking to build footing going into a harvest weekend. The harvest pace should
begin to build again the next few days with the more open weather expected to
persist into late October, although some forecasts have started to drift
wetter. Ethanol margins have found some short term support with ethanol futures
firming this morning. Corn basis should start to see renewed pressure with
better harvest pace. On the December chart support is at the 20-day at $3.67
with the 50-day at $3.64 just below that, with the 10-day just above the market
at $3.70, and the 100-day just above that at $3.71.
Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents lower with trade unable to hold the early
strength after further cancellations of imports by China. Meal is $2 to $3
lower and oil is 30 to 40 points higher. Soybean basis will likely see pressure
with harvest continuing to expand. Quality concerns remain at the forefront as
well, which will take a while to sort out. Crush margins remain strong in the
near term. South America should continue to see fairly normal early season
progress in the near term with good moisture with the biggest concerns in
Argentina. The USDA announced that China canceled three cargos of soybeans. On
the November chart support is the 50-day at $8.55 with the 20-day at $8.62
Wheat trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with light buying on spread on
unwinding heading into the weekend. The U.S. dollar has jumped back above 95.5
with more flight to safety trade this week on the outside market concerns.
Winter wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions in North America than
Europe with plenty of moisture on the plains, along with mixed Black Sea area
conditions. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with some relief in
the drier areas. MATIF milling wheat is mixed this morning. On the December
Kansas City chart, we are below at the 10-day and 20-day at 5.21 with the lower
Bollinger Band support at 5.10. Resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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